An intelligence agency has warned of a high possibility of widespread labour unrest and instability in the readymade garment (RMG) sector, the country's largest export industry and employer of around four million workers, ahead of the national elections.
The National Security Intelligence (NSI) report highlights a growing crisis driven by multiple factors, including the global economic downturn, US countervailing duties, post-July uprising labour conditions, and soaring production costs, which have already led to the closure of several garment factories.
The agency has sent the report to the labour and employment ministry along with some recommendations.
A senior official of the ministry says, "We have received a special report from the NSI on possible labour unrest in the RMG sector ahead of the national polls. We have taken necessary steps in this regard."
The growing crisis is further compounded by a negative growth trend in garment exports for three consecutive months (August-October) of the current fiscal year, raising the spectre of more factory closures and intensifying the risk of labour dissatisfaction centred on wage and benefit payments, according to the report.
It expresses concern that opportunistic groups, both domestic and foreign, may easily manipulate and incite unemployed workers from closed factories and those protesting for unpaid dues to launch a large-scale movement.
This is feared to be part of a hateful effort targeting the garment sector in the run-up to the upcoming general elections.
Officials, manufacturers, and labour monitors are warning that the volatile situation inside the RMG workforce is fast becoming a flashpoint capable of destabilising the pre-election environment.
The apparel industry traditionally thrives on political stability, predictable transport routes, and disciplined labour conditions, but all three pillars are now under strain.
Over recent months, nationwide protests demanding a "fair and rational" revision of minimum wages escalated into industrial-scale agitation.
Workers have repeatedly abandoned factory floors, marched on highways, blocked roads, and clashed with police.
The authorities concerned say politically ambitious actors have already infiltrated sections of these demonstrations using slogans, misinformation, and agitation to swell crowds and amplify unrest.
The result is factory shutdowns, production disruptions, and a rising fear that the turmoil could spill into the national political landscape.
Labour unrest in Bangladesh historically intensifies ahead of elections, and the current cycle mirrors the disruptive patterns seen in 2013, 2018, and 2023, the report mentions.
This year, workers calling for a Tk 30,000 minimum wage accuse the government of delaying decisions to avoid political backlash.
There are fears that any wage announcement now - before the polls - could ignite fresh unrest inside factories.
Manufacturers warn that even a 9.0 per cent increase in production costs could push dozens of vulnerable factories over the edge.
With global competition intensifying and margins shrinking, industry leaders fear that financial pressure combined with wage agitation could turn the sector into a political battleground.
As per the report, there were over 103,000 newly unemployed workers due to 238 factories closed between August and October 2025, creating a rapidly expanding pool of angry, unemployed youth.
Factories in Dhaka, Gazipur, Chattogram, Narayanganj, Narsingdi, Mymensingh, and Cumilla have closed one after another.
Labour officers warn that the total number of recently unemployed workers could become a powerful force if mobilised by political groups, opportunistic labour leaders, or factory owners seeking leverage.
The garment sector has recorded three straight months of negative export growth (August to October).
The key factors include US counter-tariffs and retail market instability, aggressive under-pricing by China and India in Europe, declining orders in non-traditional markets, and foreign buyers reducing orders due to fears of political instability in the election season.
Officials warn that export conditions are likely to deteriorate further in the coming months, triggering more factory closures and layoffs, which will fuel deeper unrest.
Workers from permanently closed factories, including Dird, Roar, TNZ, Seasons Dresses, Taratex, JMS, and Generation Next, are still owed months of dues.
In October 2025 alone, some 67 factories saw labour unrest over unpaid wages, layoffs, forced shutdowns under the related section 13(1), road blockades, sit-ins, vandalism, and clashes.
Officials describe this combination of unpaid dues, joblessness, and election-time political exploitation as extremely combustible.
Multiple pathways to large-scale possible unrest have been identified.
They are wage-hike protests transforming into political demonstrations, third-party infiltration in worker gatherings, unemployed workers mobilised for political advantage, opportunistic owners or union leaders exploiting the election climate, rumour campaigns and organised misinformation, and possible interference from competitor garment-exporting nations, the report says.
To prevent the possible unrest, the NSI has recommended monitoring wages and dues tightly, ensuring timely payment of all wages and bonuses, enforcing December's 9.0 per cent annual increment, and limiting layoffs and factory closures.
It has suggested high-level coordination among the labour ministry, the Department of Inspection for Factories and Establishments, the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association, the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association, the armed forces, police, and intelligence agencies.
To avoid mass bankruptcy and mass protests, the government may approve special banking facilities so that failing factories can pay dues and offer workers a "safe exit", it suggests.
It also suggests instructing law enforcement agencies to act with firmness and restraint against road blockades, vandalism, arson, or attacks on neighbouring factories.
Besides, the agency suggests other measures, including expanding the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh (TCB) family cards for jobless workers and prioritising the recruitment of unemployed workers in new factories.
If the situation spirals, analysts warn that the industrial unrest could become one of the most significant pre-election destabilising forces in years.
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