Bangladesh has never lacked ambition when it comes to renewable energy. What it has lacked, for nearly two decades now, is delivery. The country's first renewable energy policy in 2008 promised a transformed grid; seventeen years later, renewables still make up barely five per cent of installed capacity. We missed the 5 per cent target by 2015. We missed the 10 per cent target by 2020. And now, with a new Renewable Energy Policy 2025 setting a fresh goal of 20 per cent by 2030, the honest question is not whether the target is admirable; it is whether this time will be any different.

The numbers explain the scepticism. As of early this year, Bangladesh's installed renewable capacity stood at roughly 1,690 megawatts, against a total generation base pushing past 28,000 megawatts. To hit the 2030 target, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis calculates that the country needs to add about 760 megawatts of renewable capacity every single year between now and then, reaching nearly 5,850 megawatts of installed renewable power. Bangladesh has never come close to that pace. At current rates of deployment, we are on track to fall short again.

Solar carries almost the entire weight of this transition, accounting for roughly 80 per cent of renewable generation, with Kaptai's ageing hydropower plant and a still-nascent wind sector making up the rest.