Members of the militia group known as “Colectivos” march in Caracas on Sunday, calling for the release of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro after he and his wife, Cilia Flores, were captured in US strikes on Venezuela. PHOTO: REUTERS
Hours after the United States announced the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, Israeli politician Yair Lapid issued a warning to Tehran: "The regime in Iran should pay close attention to what is happening in Venezuela."
The forcible removal of Maduro from power came less than a week after US President Donald Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and threatened to launch new strikes against Iran.
Although Washington's tensions with Caracas and Tehran have different roots and dynamics, analysts say Trump's move against Maduro raises the prospects of war with Iran.
Employees stand near rubble after the US airstrike destroyed a TV and telephone tower in El Hatillo, on the outskirts of Caracas. PHOTO: REUTERS
"A new lawlessness makes everything less stable and war more likely," said Jamal Abdi, president of the National Iranian American Council (NIAC).
"Whether Trump becomes enamoured with 'surgical' regime change, or gives Netanyahu a US imprimatur for similar actions, it's hard not to see how this gives momentum for the many actors pushing for renewed war with Iran."
He added that Maduro's abduction could prompt Iran "to do something that triggers military action", including developing its own military deterrence or preempting US or Israeli strikes.
"A new lawlessness makes everything less stable and war more likely,"
— Said Jamal Abdi, president of the National Iranian American Council (NIAC).
Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, also said the US actions in Venezuela show Trump's maximalist aims, further dimming the chances of diplomacy.
"What I see and hear from Tehran is that they are not interested in negotiating with the Trump administration the way this administration signals that they want total surrender," Mortazavi told Al Jazeera.
"So, not much chance for diplomacy at the moment, which then opens the path to the opposite road, that is conflict. Right now, Israel, Iran and the US are on a path to potential conflict."
Abdi echoed that assessment. "This action reinforces every doubt and suspicion about US intentions, and gives more credence to those in Iran who say engaging the US is useless and [that] developing a nuclear deterrent is vital," he told Al Jazeera.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also been emphasising Maduro's ties to Iran, accusing Caracas, without evidence, of providing the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah a foothold in the Western Hemisphere.
